| The uncertainty in the timing and severity of disaster events makes the long-term planning of mitigative and recovery actions not only very difficult but also very critical. Often planners use expected values for hazard occurrences, leaving communities vulnerable to worse-than-usual and even so-called "black swan" events.
This research models disasters in terms of their best-case, most-likely, and worst-case estimates. These values are then embedded in a fuzzy goal programming model to provide community planners and stakeholders with the ability to strategize for any range of events from best-case to worst case, as their community wishes to plan. Examples are given illustrating the modeling approach. . |
Updated 02/21/2015